Hey guys.
I've been asked via PM why I haven't been posting lately, and the answer is pretty simple: I've been quite busy and pretty much all of my available time I do spend with making charts, posts and explanations goes towards the J16 site material and my journal and threads there.

But I would be lying if it weren't also the still black/white difference of what goes on on a public forum(spirit and quality of posts and attitude overall) vs what you get on a private one. I don't even want to begin to remember some of the fights I've had (I'd in some cases write "had" to have, but if I'm honest again, I didn't "have" to anything..) both in threads as well as in PMs and in stark contrast to that stands the experience "on the other side".

It's obvious that this doesn't apply as much to this thread, as the folks participating here help make it the refuge it is, but we do from time to time get reminders here as well what different types of folks are around..

Anyhow. Just wanted to throw up some charts I hope weren't already posted in quite the same fashion, as I've not really kept up with developments here lately. I saw that everyone got their share of EJ's weekly PB and that's great =)
Btw - to anyone STILL trading with mini-accounts even though their account size doesn't permit them to size properly: get a broker that suits your means, do NOT compromise via risk and setups! You'll just grow bad habits and into potential disastrous trading results if you stray from sizing discipline.

Here's EURCAD and then some over time progression on EURGBP. Mainly to me these are examples of how you can pick out potential coming moves and likely "trouble spots" on the chart. I've lately started trying to do more before-doing-after charts(if I can manage it time wise) simply to stave off all the most-extremely-annoying claims of "anyone can write stuff on a chart afterwards".
If anyone doesn't WANT to believe (in) something, then don't. Freedom of choice. Just leave it at that. Don't bother the folks doing it though.

I also think the bar/candle critique missed the point. It's not about boasting/claiming to have invented the wheel; personally I thought it's about showing how you can have a way of trading with a net positive result with just a chart and some common sense.
There again I felt that "forum ego" thing("I'ma go into that thread and show them!") distorting the actual issue(and boy, have I ever been there and done that myself). Again, that's why I'm not such a big fan of the public stuff anymore.

Charts - EURCAD first. Turns out the weekly bar ended up bearish(was posted by someone just some posts ago) after the days following this setup couldn't get anywhere in the end and I'm going to wait to see whether a retrace + setup comes around eventually(I am loathe to just sell into all the fuzz below).

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Trust price. Know yourself.

EURGBP progression over time.

From the idea for a potential breakout from a sloping wedge to daily bar setups and a "zone to pass" marker that lead into the next higher level marker, which to me was a "if this pops, price probably will get a run" level.

Charts:

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__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Man, this thread is crazy :P

I just wanted to post a setup and I had to read past almost 100 posts.

The whole living off trading / required amount discussion always comes around again and I am always shocked again that people seem to always forget the tax, insurance, bad year, x-factor things each time. You can't assume an outcome ahead of time, just as you cannot assume that every USD/EUR/CAD/AUD whichever earned you're allowed to keep 1:1 in a country with a government.

And a really, really brief word about those that can make small (20-50k) accounts work for them as a living - my biggest respect to those who can, but imho they will have a degree of experience and skill that's just quite a bit removed from those who could with no magic learn how to make a double digit income from simple stuff nonetheless.
To me, assuming them as normal is like assuming that everyone can be a Mozart in terms of music. Not that those kind of people don't exist or aren't born; it's just that assuming the whole "anyone can do it!" concept applies is completely off the mark imho.


As for the setup: I hope it will be good examples of why PA can reduce complexity.
I love the fact that you can look at all the folks that go on and on about about this news event and that, all the fundy headlines and facts, laugh or shake your head, perhaps sigh or perhaps just raise an eyebrow, place your orders, make your pips and completely ignore all the noise that it really is.

Jeff in particular has proven that you can literally that way make money while you're sleeping

IB off s/r (fraud claim protected thanks to pre-close and post close snapshots of the trade and snapshot of fill):

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__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.

Everyone(not personal / not addresssed just at you MPP) should keep in mind that a possibility shouldn't lead to an assumption and that as MPP wrote, you need to suit your parameters to YOUR trading.

I know a lot of people who read things like 80%+ will simply say hey, why not use 10% risk then, can't lose, right? (I am imagining a lot of heads of other folks nodding at this juncture for having seen this very thing, too)

High win / low loss is just one approach.
You can just as well use a more trailing oriented approach with less, but bigger winners, which will shape your curve differently.
Any discretionary based approach can't just be assumed to produce anything. YOU might or not do or achieve things; the method or approach is just that, a method and can be shaped and integrated in many ways.

It will still be you that is tasked with actually doing it and producing results.

Why do I bring this up?
Not just to stave off the "10% a trade" folly.
One thing I've noticed during a lot of "planning phases": I think a lot of folks make the mistake of spending a lot of time on theorizing about things instead of taking small ideas, holding them against reality and verifying/falsifying and steadily progressing as they go.

Don't spend too much with an idea on paper; hold it against the chart and then try to reproduce it in a realtime environment, then see what that does for / to you. Adapt and change as you go, but settle on something eventually and then just perpetuate that.
IMHO a better investment than never deciding on(system hopping or constant readjustment) or enacting(lots of threads, notes, posts and thoughts, but little time spent on actual back- and forward testing) anything.

Don't get me wrong; plans are a must. It's just that I sometimes get a feeling of this "dreaming and wanting" instead of "acting and dealing" and that vibe usually comes only if you are still wobbly about where you really want to go and unconvinced. And although conviction can only come from adaption and experience, you need to often start with a leap of faith and actually just investing yourself in something and seeing how it goes.

My personal opinion only.

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Trust price. Know yourself.

You meant EURCHF both times, right?

I, too, wonder about what the commods, oil, metal, stocks, USD will end up doing..

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Trust price. Know yourself.